The macroevolutionary singularity of snakes.

Snakes and lizards (Squamata) represent a third of terrestrial vertebrates and exhibit spectacular innovations in locomotion, feeding, and sensory processing. However, the evolutionary drivers of this radiation remain poorly known. We infer potential causes and ultimate consequences of squamate macroevolution by combining individual-based natural history observations (>60,000 animals) with a comprehensive time-calibrated phylogeny that we anchored with genomic data (5400 loci) from 1018 species. Due to shifts in the dynamics of speciation and phenotypic evolution, snakes have transformed the trophic structure of animal communities through the recurrent origin and diversification of specialized predatory strategies. Squamate biodiversity reflects a legacy of singular events that occurred during the early history of snakes and reveals the impact of historical contingency on vertebrate biodiversity.

Deep ecomorphological and genetic divergence in Steller's Jays (Cyanocitta stelleri, Aves: Corvidae).

The relationship between ecology and morphology is a cornerstone of evolutionary biology, and quantifying variation across environments can shed light on processes that give rise to biodiversity. Three morphotypes of the Steller's Jay (Cyanocitta stelleri) occupy different ecoregions in western North America, which vary in climate and landcover. These morphotypes (Coastal, Interior, Rocky Mountain) differ in size, plumage coloration, and head pattern. We sampled 1080 Steller's Jays from 68 populations (plus 11 outgroups) to address three main questions using data on morphology, plumage, genetics (mtDNA, microsatellites), and ecological niches: (1) How do phenotypic and genetic traits vary within and among populations, morphotypes, and ecoregions? (2) How do population-level differences in Steller's Jays compare with other sister species pairs of North American birds? (3) What can we infer about the population history of Steller's Jays in relation to past climates, paleoecology, and niche evolution? We found substantial morphological, genetic, and ecological differentiation among morphotypes. The greatest genetic divergence separated Coastal and Interior morphotypes from the Rocky Mountain morphotype, which was associated with warmer, drier, and more open habitats. Microsatellites revealed additional structure between Coastal and Interior groups. The deep mtDNA split between Coastal/Interior and Rocky Mountain lineages of Steller's Jay (ND2 ~ 7.8%) is older than most North American avian sister species and dates to approximately 4.3 mya. Interior and Rocky Mountain morphotypes contact across a narrow zone with steep clines in traits and reduced gene flow. The distribution of the three morphotypes coincides with divergent varieties of ponderosa pine and Douglas fir. Species distribution models support multiple glacial refugia for Steller's Jays. Our integrative dataset combined with extensive geographic sampling provides compelling evidence for recognizing at least two species of Steller's Jay.

Does Population Structure Predict the Rate of Speciation? A Comparative Test across Australia's Most Diverse Vertebrate Radiation.

Population divergence is the first step in allopatric speciation, as has long been recognized in both theoretical models of speciation and empirical explorations of natural systems. All else being equal, lineages with substantial population differentiation should form new species more quickly than lineages that maintain range-wide genetic cohesion through high levels of gene flow. However, there have been few direct tests of the extent to which population differentiation predicts speciation rates as measured on phylogenetic trees. Here, we explicitly test the links between organismal traits, population-level processes, and phylogenetic speciation rates across a diverse clade of Australian lizards that shows remarkable variation in speciation rate. Using genome-wide double digest restriction site-associated DNA data from 892 individuals, we generated a comparative data set on isolation by distance and population differentiation across 104 putative species-level lineages (operational taxonomic units). We find that species show substantial variation in the extent of population differentiation, and this variation is predicted by organismal traits that are thought to be proxies for dispersal and deme size. However, variation in population structure does not predict variation in speciation rate. Our results suggest that population differentiation is not the rate-limiting step in species formation and that other ecological and historical factors are primary determinants of speciation rates at macroevolutionary scales.

An inverse latitudinal gradient in speciation rate for marine fishes.

Far more species of organisms are found in the tropics than in temperate and polar regions, but the evolutionary and ecological causes of this pattern remain controversial1,2. Tropical marine fish communities are much more diverse than cold-water fish communities found at higher latitudes3,4, and several explanations for this latitudinal diversity gradient propose that warm reef environments serve as evolutionary 'hotspots' for species formation5-8. Here we test the relationship between latitude, species richness and speciation rate across marine fishes. We assembled a time-calibrated phylogeny of all ray-finned fishes (31,526 tips, of which 11,638 had genetic data) and used this framework to describe the spatial dynamics of speciation in the marine realm. We show that the fastest rates of speciation occur in species-poor regions outside the tropics, and that high-latitude fish lineages form new species at much faster rates than their tropical counterparts. High rates of speciation occur in geographical regions that are characterized by low surface temperatures and high endemism. Our results reject a broad class of mechanisms under which the tropics serve as an evolutionary cradle for marine fish diversity and raise new questions about why the coldest oceans on Earth are present-day hotspots of species formation.

Genetic diversity is largely unpredictable but scales with museum occurrences in a species-rich clade of Australian lizards.

Genetic diversity is a fundamental characteristic of species and is affected by many factors, including mutation rate, population size, life history and demography. To better understand the processes that influence levels of genetic diversity across taxa, we collected genome-wide restriction-associated DNA data from more than 500 individuals spanning 76 nominal species of Australian scincid lizards in the genus Ctenotus To avoid potential biases associated with variation in taxonomic practice across the group, we used coalescent-based species delimitation to delineate 83 species-level lineages within the genus for downstream analyses. We then used these genetic data to infer levels of within-population genetic diversity. Using a phylogenetically informed approach, we tested whether variation in genetic diversity could be explained by population size, environmental heterogeneity or historical demography. We find that the strongest predictor of genetic diversity is a novel proxy for census population size: the number of vouchered occurrences in museum databases. However, museum occurrences only explain a limited proportion of the variance in genetic diversity, suggesting that genetic diversity might be difficult to predict at shallower phylogenetic scales.

Do Macrophylogenies Yield Stable Macroevolutionary Inferences? An Example from Squamate Reptiles.

Advances in the generation, retrieval, and analysis of phylogenetic data have enabled researchers to create phylogenies that contain many thousands of taxa. These "macrophylogenies"-large trees that typically derive from megaphylogeny, supermatrix, or supertree approaches-provide researchers with an unprecedented ability to conduct evolutionary analyses across broad phylogenetic scales. Many studies have now used these phylogenies to explore the dynamics of speciation, extinction, and phenotypic evolution across large swaths of the tree of life. These trees are characterized by substantial phylogenetic uncertainty on multiple levels, and the stability of macroevolutionary inferences from these data sets has not been rigorously explored. As a case study, we tested whether five recently published phylogenies for squamate reptiles-each consisting of more than 4000 species-yield congruent inferences about the processes that underlie variation in species richness across replicate evolutionary radiations of Australian snakes and lizards. We find discordance across the five focal phylogenies with respect to clade age and several diversification rate metrics, and in the effects of clade age on species richness. We also find that crown clade ages reported in the literature on these Australian groups are in conflict with all of the large phylogenies examined. Macrophylogenies offer an unprecedented opportunity to address evolutionary and ecological questions at broad phylogenetic scales, but accurately representing the uncertainty that is inherent to such analyses remains a critical challenge to our field. [Australia; macroevolution; macrophylogeny; squamates; time calibration.].

Tests of species-specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean-climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection.

Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species-specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade-offs in functional traits, and local-scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade-off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common.

Coral snakes predict the evolution of mimicry across New World snakes.

Batesian mimicry, in which harmless species (mimics) deter predators by deceitfully imitating the warning signals of noxious species (models), generates striking cases of phenotypic convergence that are classic examples of evolution by natural selection. However, mimicry of venomous coral snakes has remained controversial because of unresolved conflict between the predictions of mimicry theory and empirical patterns in the distribution and abundance of snakes. Here we integrate distributional, phenotypic and phylogenetic data across all New World snake species to demonstrate that shifts to mimetic coloration in nonvenomous snakes are highly correlated with coral snakes in both space and time, providing overwhelming support for Batesian mimicry. We also find that bidirectional transitions between mimetic and cryptic coloration are unexpectedly frequent over both long- and short-time scales, challenging traditional views of mimicry as a stable evolutionary 'end point' and suggesting that insect and snake mimicry may have different evolutionary dynamics.

Minimal effects of latitude on present-day speciation rates in New World birds.

The tropics contain far greater numbers of species than temperate regions, suggesting that rates of species formation might differ systematically between tropical and non-tropical areas. We tested this hypothesis by reconstructing the history of speciation in New World (NW) land birds using BAMM, a Bayesian framework for modelling complex evolutionary dynamics on phylogenetic trees. We estimated marginal distributions of present-day speciation rates for each of 2571 species of birds. The present-day rate of speciation varies approximately 30-fold across NW birds, but there is no difference in the rate distributions for tropical and temperate taxa. Using macroevolutionary cohort analysis, we demonstrate that clades with high tropical membership do not produce species more rapidly than temperate clades. For nearly any value of present-day speciation rate, there are far more species in the tropics than the temperate zone. Any effects of latitude on speciation rate are marginal in comparison to the dramatic variation in rates among clades.

Rates of climatic niche evolution are correlated with species richness in a large and ecologically diverse radiation of songbirds.

By employing a recently inferred phylogeny and museum occurrence records, we examine the relationship of ecological niche evolution to diversification in the largest family of songbirds, the tanagers (Thraupidae). We test whether differences in species numbers in the major clades of tanagers can be explained by differences in rate of climatic niche evolution. We develop a methodological pipeline to process and filter occurrence records. We find that, of the ecological variables examined, clade richness is higher in clades with higher climatic niche rate, and that this rate is also greater for clades that occupy a greater extent of climatic space. Additionally, we find that more speciose clades contain species with narrower niche breadths, suggesting that clades in which species are more successful at diversifying across climatic gradients have greater potential for speciation or are more buffered from the risk of extinction.

Phylogenetics and diversification of tanagers (Passeriformes: Thraupidae), the largest radiation of Neotropical songbirds.

Thraupidae is the second largest family of birds and represents about 4% of all avian species and 12% of the Neotropical avifauna. Species in this family display a wide range of plumage colors and patterns, foraging behaviors, vocalizations, ecotypes, and habitat preferences. The lack of a complete phylogeny for tanagers has hindered the study of this evolutionary diversity. Here, we present a comprehensive, species-level phylogeny for tanagers using six molecular markers. Our analyses identified 13 major clades of tanagers that we designate as subfamilies. In addition, two species are recognized as distinct branches on the tanager tree. Our topologies disagree in many places with previous estimates of relationships within tanagers, and many long-recognized genera are not monophyletic in our analyses. Our trees identify several cases of convergent evolution in plumage ornaments and bill morphology, and two cases of social mimicry. The phylogeny produced by this study provides a robust framework for studying macroevolutionary patterns and character evolution. We use our new phylogeny to study diversification processes, and find that tanagers show a background model of exponentially declining diversification rates. Thus, the evolution of tanagers began with an initial burst of diversification followed by a rate slowdown. In addition to this background model, two later, clade-specific rate shifts are supported, one increase for Darwin's finches and another increase for some species of Sporophila. The rate of diversification within these two groups is exceptional, even when compared to the overall rapid rate of diversification found within tanagers. This study provides the first robust assessment of diversification rates for the Darwin's finches in the context of the larger group within which they evolved.